The accompanying chart shows the result of the same election separated by two years. It shows that in just two years the balance of power changed strongly to another party. It magnifies that PDP had an increasing positive votes of about 22% of the district. This is massively reflected in two main towns: Ede North and Ede South.
The implication of this is change remains a constant phenomenon in life and time (in years) is a major tool for change. If in just two years, a leading party could lose its power, then a lot of things can happen in four years. Many of the attributes of change may be the political Aspirants, political party, Results/works of the incumbent political party, etc. This also warns that the charge of the shift in power might be temporary enough for the next coming elections. Many attributed it to the death of the former Senator and used this election as a compensation for him and his family. Death is always a key factor in politics. There was a sympathy vote towards the Adeleke’s. the result would have been closely replicated had Ademola Adeleke (the winner) ran under Accord. Vitally, there was a marked voter apathy amongst APC voters. These two significant factors will certainly not be replicated in the governorship election on September 22 2018.
Lessons From Osun West Bye-election
Osun West Senatorial District is one of the zones in the state that have in the past determined the outcome of elections, but the July 7, 2017 Senatorial bye-election in the zone, sequel to the death of Senator Isiaka Adeleke was a clear digression from the established patter of voting in the district.
The district is known to be progressive-minded owing to the success that had been recorded during the days of Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigerian and now the All Progressives Congress (APC), particularly in Iwo, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Ayedire, Irewole, Isokan, among others as against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but the pattern of the 2017 bye-election was an hurdle for the APC to cross.
Some of the factors that may determine the success of the ruling party in the zone during the September 22 governorship election are acceptability of the candidate, mobilization machineries put in place, developmental projects of the incumbent in the zone.
However, developmental projects in both rural and urban centers in the zone abound; such projects range from school infrastructure, road infrastructure, social intervention programmes among others. To complement this, a party will have to choose an acceptable candidate and put in place an effective electoral machines that would mobilize massively for the party which would dictate how the election would shape up.